The Return of the Machine Breakers: Our Future Markets Need More Than Just High Technology and Knowledge-Based Professions
When the machine breakers of the early 19th century destroyed machines out of fear for their jobs and even killed their inventors, they wanted to halt the beginning of a new era – albeit with the most unsuitable means imaginable. They simply could not envision the new professions and markets that were about to emerge. Today, things are not much different. Many companies, industries and professions in Germany and Europe will gradually reach the end of their era. This has been happening for thousands of years, but today at an ever-increasing pace. Some companies and industries will go through structural crises, only to then set out into a new era. Others will disappear forever.
Qualification as the Entry Ticket into the "Asian Century"
For many employees and employers, these upheavals will indeed lead to professional, financial and even existential catastrophes. The world is open to the highly qualified. But at the other end of an increasingly polarizing labor market stand those whose qualifications are in ever-decreasing demand. It is incomprehensible and downright outrageous to see how many young people today enter or are even sent into working life with barely future-fit qualifications, entirely without vocational training or even without a school diploma. This is how a dangerous potential for social and political conflict is growing. How are they supposed to earn a decent living over 40 to 50 years in the dawning "Asian Century"? They are the ones we truly need to worry about. Consequently, our future markets cannot and must not lie exclusively in high technologies and knowledge-based professions.
Parallel to the fear of technologically driven change, the fear of the Chinese and Indians is growing, particularly among the leaders of manufacturing companies in Europe. The Asians are becoming ever better and more skilled and aggressive in competition. Not least, their geopolitical and financial power is growing. The old formula for success – that one must be as much better as one is more expensive – is no longer sufficient even for temporary reassurance. Practice shows that the "better" product does not always win. "Better" is a far too general competitive dimension. Many European manufacturers are conquering Asian markets precisely because their products are not better, but simpler – "right-sized" and therefore more affordable. Good examples are mobile phones, medical devices and cars.
The Future Will Offer Us Significantly More Opportunities Than the Past
We are entering a multipolar economic world in which we in Europe will be a comparatively smaller, but likely still competitive player, standing on equal footing with many new competitors. And Europe has greater opportunities than we generally believe. The fact that local companies sell roughly as much to Asia as we import from there is often overlooked. It is equally often suppressed that the increasing prosperity of others – here represented by the growing wealth of the Chinese and Indians – is not a disadvantage, but fundamentally an advantage for European companies.
The global middle class is growing at a rapid pace. It is expected to triple by 2030. Products, services and solutions from Germany and Europe will continue to be purchased by these people around the world who are achieving prosperity. If the increase in global prosperity eventually takes place within the framework of the principles of ecological and social sustainability, one may also look to the future with great confidence from an ethical and existential perspective. However, we must recognize early on when and how the era of our Business Fields is coming to an end, adapt in time to changed markets and open up new ones. In this process, we will need to produce and deliver not only improved and entirely new things, but also much that is tried and tested in simpler form and/or at significantly lower prices.
Companies Exist to Make People Happier
Every innovation and every increase in prosperity leads to new problems and desires. In the future, these will increasingly be immaterial, intellectual and even spiritual in nature. We will regard different activities than today as work for our livelihood. The future will offer us significantly more opportunities than the past. The great challenge will be that these opportunities will simply no longer be as easy to recognize.
Have a bright future!