Dr. Pero Mićić
This Artificial Intelligence will change your life, your profession and your business. Google’s top management is shocked and declares a red alert. It is about ChatGPT. I’m sure you’ve heard a lot about it. Here’s how we at FutureManagementGroup think about ChatGPT and generative AI, and what we advise our clients to do to future-proof themselves. So what does it all mean for you professionally and entrepreneurially?
ChatGPT is a huge leap in artificial intelligence capabilities
With ChatGPT you can have in-depth conversations, and ChatGPT already seems like an expert on everything, even though it is just a prototype. ChatGPT is a huge leap in artificial intelligence capabilities. ChatGPT and similar systems will be as revolutionary as the Google search engine or the iPhone were back then. This is not said by any laymen, but by the best AI experts. Others never tire of explaining what ChatGPT can’t do. ChatGPT is still only a prototype. But soon the world of work will no longer be as we know it. And with You.com, Perplexity.ai and others, more AI systems are coming to market.
What is ChatGPT?
There are already countless posts about ChatGPT. I just want to give a brief overview here before we look at the implications for you. So, what is ChatGPT? It’s an artificial intelligence that you can ask all kinds of questions and it will give incredibly good and even creative answers, just like a human. The system is practically omniscient even as a prototype, or at least it will be over time. ChatGPT is an artificial brain, a neural network that gets its knowledge from a huge language model with currently 300 billion words. And this language model is growing exponentially, which means that the quality of the answers is getting better and better very quickly.
ChatGPT is a product of OpenAI. This is a non-profit company whose mission is to make artificial intelligence useful and safe, make it follow ethical principles, and make it accessible to everyone. Not just for the big and rich.
What can ChatGPT do?
ChatGPT soon knows almost everything
I ask ChatGPT: What are professions of the future? I immediately get some examples and the hint that I just need to keep asking to get more examples.
I ask about trends in health technologies. And get the first five trends.
I ask for an example where health technologies conflict with social change. And get a well thought out answer.
ChatGPT can write essays. Hundreds of books have been written with the base GPT. ChatGPT recently passed the Medical Licensing Exam even in this prototype version, which takes 33 hours after all . And ChatGPT has already passed a law exam.
ChatGPT masters mathematics
I invite ChatGPT to discuss the following feature:
And promptly it does just that. Simply impressive.
ChatGPT can program
I say “write me a program code that shows a map with charging stations for electric cars”. ChatGPT writes code in Python within seconds and explains what else I need to install to make the code work.
I say “write me some code that will generate a Likert scale survey”. And bang, I have the code. If I tell the system to make the output results beautiful, it does. The system can even detect its own errors in the code and correct them.
ChatGPT is creative and promotes creativity
The G in GPT stands for Generative. Generative AI means it can create new content, new text, new images, standing and moving, and new audio. Yes, AI is now demonstrably creative. In any case, it can significantly increase your creativity simply because it gives you new ideas that you simply wouldn’t have thought of in the time available. Writer’s block, the famous staring at the blank page, will no longer happen to you with ChatGPT & Co.
ChatGPT can write scripts for a Monty Python skit and narrate meaningful and perfectly rhyming poems. -> Link
With GPT, the basis of ChatGPT, new proteins were developed or found.
Here, a user asked ChatGPT to write a fictional interactive scene in a Harry Potter movie. And that’s exactly what it does.
It knows the Great Hall of Hogwarts and Professor Dumbledore. Suddenly Death Eaters come into the room, what do you do? And it gives four plot choices appropriate to Harry Potter. -> Link
In one case, someone from c’t 3003 told ChatGPT to behave like a Windows terminal and the system made up a file system and hallucinated an entire computer, as they say.
I ask “Which companies have the challenge, like BYD , the Chinese battery and car maker) to grow rapidly while securing access to natural resources. That’s the kind of thing you ask in order to learn from other industries. And I promptly get three absolutely valid ideas: the Tesla, Apple, Nestlé. Justification included.
I challenge the system to come up with names for a company like our FutureManagementGroup that deals with foresight, strategy, innovation and leadership. And I get 10 creative and quite useful suggestions.
I ask ChatGPT what is a Bright Future Business. That is the title of my new book. I get a really good answer, along with a hint of uncertainty and a reminder to be careful.
- Strong innovative business model
- Focus on solving important problems
- Commitment to ethical and sustainable principles
- Adaptability and resilience
Note: The book was already in print when ChatGPT was published.
What’s new about it?
Infinite. But in essence: what we have been pointing out for many years is now becoming possible. AI is becoming usable by everyone and is becoming unimaginably powerful.
While we have only ever been shown a pretty good list of presumably helpful links by Google for over 20 years, ChatGPT provides a concrete answer. As if you had asked a competent person. And: if I now ask to make the answer simpler or more detailed, that’s what happens. Just as if I had asked an expert for a simple or more precise answer. So ChatGPT remembers my previous questions and its answers. Like in a real dialogue. No wonder Google is in a panic, since 60 percent of its revenue comes from advertising in the search engine. Microsoft is a shareholder of OpenAI and will incorporate ChatGPT into its Bing search engine.
How dangerous is ChatGPT?
ChatGPT sometimes gives dangerous answers
If I ask ChatGPT how to build a Molotov cocktail or a pipe bomb, it refuses to answer and also gives reasons for its refusal. In some cases, the system did give dangerous instructions, but this was corrected within a very short time.
ChatGPT has prejudices
Yes, because it is based on texts written by humans. Its prejudices, racism, misogyny, etc., it got from us. So there is still some work to be done to eliminate such deficiencies.
Anyone can present themselves as an expert
With systems like ChatGPT, anyone can present himself or herself as an expert in areas he or she has no idea about. That’s the negative side of making us more productive and creative with AI. From term papers to master’s theses to dissertations to – yes – videos, we can no longer trust that a work actually shows the author’s knowledge.
ChatGPT makes mistakes
ChatGPT makes quite a few mistakes in detail. Logic puzzles ChatGPT often solves surprisingly well, but it also still makes quite a few mistakes.
Chat GPT was released as a prototype on November 30, 2022. So it’s right at the beginning. Like Google 22 years ago. His skills will drastically improve very quickly. ChatGPT is not even connected to the Internet or any other source of knowledge. It generates all answers exclusively from its own model. We can expect ChatGPT to improve at an exponential rate. The sources become more diverse, the language model larger, and the rules better. ChatGPT will make very few mistakes very soon. And at some point, virtually no more mistakes.
People could unlearn logic and creativity
It can happen that people who use generative AI so intensively, and thus outsource knowledge, thinking and creativity to a certain extent, gradually unlearn their own skills. The proportion of knowledge and works generated by human beings will inevitably decrease. This knowledge then in turn becomes the input for the artificial intelligences. In doing so, there is also the danger that knowledge becomes in some ways more inhuman. But, educators also saw Wikipedia and Google as destroying education. And when computers conquered the offices, no one had the slightest idea that a huge IT industry would emerge from it.
There are quite a few other dangers , but I want to focus here on the consequences for your profession and your business. Especially since we will probably get most of the hazards under control.
How good will ChatGPT be?
Anyone who cynically makes fun of the flaws in ChatGPT today is making a big mistake. We need to judge exponential technologies like this AI by what they will be able to do in the future. The people from Encyclopedia Britannica or from Brockhaus laughed at the early versions of Wikipedia. Until your business was destroyed. Several trends and factors will drive ChatGPT’s performance:
The power increases exponentially
The architecture of these so-called transformers, these large language models, is already very advanced. The explosive growth in performance comes from exponentially growing data volumes. From 300 billion words today, it will quickly become several trillion and then quadrillions. In addition, computing power is also increasing exponentially. And finally, the rapidly increasing variety of practical applications and thus a lot of human feedback. This trains the model. AI and humans are practically training each other to become better experts. Thus, the quality of ChatGPT’s knowledge will improve over the years to near perfection.
Moreover, we cannot yet know exactly what these AIs can do. There is even a term “capability overhang” for this phenomenon. So about skill overhang. AI can do more than we can imagine.
By the way, OpenAI has just introduced a paid version of ChatGPT.is preparing a paid Professional version.
ChatGPT will get face and voice
You will be able to choose a face for ChatGPT to answer and talk to you. You can replace it at will. The CEO of OpenAI has already announced a video AI.
Take a look at the site “thispersondoesnotexist.com”. Keep refreshing the page. You will see absolutely natural-looking people, none of whom have ever actually lived.
For this purpose, you will be able to choose you sympathetic voice with which the AI will talk to you. This gives you a sympathetic omniscient advisor on your screen. For all your professional and private questions, problems and challenges.
I can hardly express in words the immense change this will mean for our life and work in the future. It will be fascinating. And for many, scary, too.
The complexity of the world decreases
For the first time in a long time, perhaps for the first time in human history, the complexity we have to deal with is decreasing. Or better, complexity becomes more manageable for us. Not only our computers and cell phones, but every machine, every device, every thing will communicate with us in natural language. This is a little recognized and even less understood development that can significantly improve our quality of life.
ChatGPT becomes more trustworthy
With neural networks there is the black box problem. One does not know how the AI arrived at its result. But ChatGPT can explain itself. If you ask how it came to his answer, today there are already quite useful answers and explains, for example, his train of thought. In the future, it will also cite its sources, as perplexity.ai already does. We can build in rules and values. Thus, generative AI becomes more trustworthy over time.
Where and how will ChatGPT be applied?
ChatGPT & Co. can make everyone more productive, creative and qualitatively efficient. Or replace it altogether. But it is always thought too short. After all, it’s not just about efficiency, i.e., performing a certain service with fewer people. It is also about delivering better performance and quality with the same people, i.e. productivity. This ultimately increases the benefits for customers and their quality of life, and thus your success as a provider. The Google search engine was also seen by many as a job killer. No, on the contrary, Google search has created many new jobs, most of which we did not even know about at the time.
So, how can ChatGPT change your business?
Advise and serve your customers
In the beginning, it will just be a very good chatbot, like the ones we’ve been finding on websites for years. But if they train their own chatbot based on Chat GPT, it will very quickly have all the knowledge of your company and will be able to advise their customers almost perfectly. As said, then with a very sympathetic and from the customer selectable face including individual melodious voice.
Their AI patiently and systematically advises customers until they find the exact product or service that suits them.
When their patients, customers or clients want to book an appointment in their calendar, you can do it in the future in dialog with your enterprise AI.
The same works for service cases. The annoying menus on the phone are finally history. In addition, you can use the dialogs with your customers to evaluate and better understand their needs, problems and wishes. If data protection permits.
Informing your customers’ AI companion
More and more of your customers will have their own personal AI advisor and companion in the future. Informing this is a great opportunity. Then your AI talks to each customer’s AI individually.
What their company’s AI tells their customers, customers don’t have to remember themselves. Your AI can inform your client’s AI assistant, which then remembers everything in the right context. She also knows exactly what preferences her owner has. What he likes, what she hates. What she generally values.
If you offer your customers music, movies or training videos , your customer’s AI will help him or her make the perfect decision at the moment. And all this in a pleasant dialogue, like with a good friend. This is exactly how it will work with any other product or service.
ChatGPT has the potential to make marketing, advertising and sales largely redundant . Their customers’ AI consultants know very well what their customers need and want. And what not. And they can search for and find suitable inspiration from vendors on behalf of your owner and suggest you.
Train your employees’ AI advisors
For decades, everyone has been looking for a perfect knowledge management solution. So far, the answer has always been that you can write down a lot, but that in case of doubt it will not be found or read after all. Complex tacit knowledge in particular can in principle only be passed on from person to person. Feeding and training your AI with all their enterprise knowledge means your employees can get ad-hoc answers to any question about your business model at any time. And, of course, have ideas developed.
If employees leave your company, for reasons of age or because they are looking for a new challenge, then you can bring their knowledge into your system in text form. This way it will not get lost. All you have to do is interview the outgoing employees in detail and document the text.
The cost of training new employees is drastically reduced. Such systems will be the best teachers, advisors and coaches when it comes to factual technical information. The emotional elements of education and training are, of course, reserved for humans. At least for a while.
Advisor to your employees for each step of the work
In your personal life, for example, generative AI will tell you what dishes you can make with the ingredients you currently have in your refrigerator. Of course, only ones that your own AI consultant knows you like. And with step-by-step instructions in video format.
To your employees, AI will suggest how your team should proceed in the implementation of a particular product. Or it proposes a plan for implementing a project and ranks the tasks and steps to be completed in an optimal order. Of course, it takes into account available resources and even employee vacations and seasonal sick leave.
Literally every process and every decision becomes qualitatively better and takes significantly less time. More quality and more productivity are massive drivers for more benefits for your customers and society and for more success of your company.
In our Bright Future Business program, our clients get more in-depth videos, tutorials and ideas on generative AI. For our clients, we develop specific scenarios and application possibilities for generative AI as a building block for future-proof strategies.
And now?
For decades, we have repeatedly pointed out what AI will be able to do. I hear the many cynical and doubting comments. Much of that will now fall silent. ChatGPT can do an enormous amount of what we thought would forever be reserved for humans. What is interesting here is what OpenAI itself says about the threats to your business: “AI will not steal your job. A person who is comfortable with using AI will!”
There are three types of activities in your business: Production, Transaction, Interaction. We have already automated production to a great extent. You are automating the transactions right now in the course of digitization. And now the interactions are being made intelligent. Until now, all this was reserved for humans, humans interacted with each other. That will continue to be the case to a good extent, but people will immensely improve the quality and productivity of their work with such systems. And, as I said at the beginning, generative AI can be creative itself, giving us ideas that we can develop further. This will make your employees fabulously more productive and creative.
What do I recommend you do?
- Realize: With generative AI, you can make yourself and your company much better and more successful. ChatGPT is also available to you, even for your own applications via an API, a direct interface.
- Find out more about ChatGPT. You don’t need to know all the details, but you do need to know what is possible and what will be possible. Make yourself decision competent in generative AI.
- Assign an employee, or a team right away, to find the one application in your organization that would give you the greatest competitive advantage if you strengthened it with generative AI.
- Assign your team to develop a prototype. Engage external help for this as well, so that you have a usable application faster.
- When is the right time to do it? Now!
We have been developing future strategies with our clients for over 30 years. AI has always been an issue. Now it gets much more exciting. If you want to know how we future-proof companies, follow these links:
► The Future Strategy Program for SMEs
► Free video crash course THE FUTURE OF YOUR BUSINESS
► BUSINESS WARGAMING for robust business and future opportunities
► KEYNOTES by Pero Mićić for your employees and customers
Have a bright future!
